The Future is Your Decision

From our July 2011 Creating Confidence Newsletter.

Last Tuesday the 12^th, I spent the morning at the Vistage All City meeting. Our speaker was Brian Beaulieu, a respected economist from the Institute for Trend Research. Brian’s talk, The Future is Your Decision, offered perspectives for CEOs and individual investors based on his trend research.

I found his information useful and have summarized his thoughts below.

Overview

There are 3 mega-trends to be considered when making decisions about your businesses or when investing:

1. Demographics, the World and the US have increasing population. More people = economic growth
2. Inflation, not hyperinflation, but easily 4.5% to 6%
3. Taxes are going up

2011 and 2012 will be periods of modest growth, with continued high unemployment. At the same time, it will be increasingly difficult to fill certain knowledge based positions because our workforce is a) immobile due to being unable to sell their existing homes and b) inadequately trained for the type of jobs available.

2013 and 2014 will likely be a modest recessionary period like the early 1990’s but not as deep as 2008.

Commodity prices are on a temporary rest. 2012 will see increasing commodity prices on items such gold, copper, oil and agricultural products.

The US represents 26% of the world economy. While we are the largest economy in the world, our share of the pie is growing smaller and opportunities exist in emerging economies for investment and doing business. Think Brazil, Australia, and India.

There will be ongoing weakness of the US dollar.

Housing will no longer be in recession but will not be in recovery. Over the next 5 years people will rent and not buy.

Interest rates will remain low and may creep up in 2012 and 2013. A 2014 recession may provide a temporary restraint on rates. Currently we have the lowest rates we will see in our lifetime. Borrow long term, taking advantage of fixed rates now and repay with cheaper inflated dollars.

Remember that normal today is tomorrow’s abnormal.

For Businesses

Look for customers in these growth segments:

• Exporters
• Alternative Energy
• Health care
• Professional services such as law and accounting
• Higher education
• Overseas in India, Brazil, Canada and Australia

Inflation will hit the labor market in 2012. You will need a strategy to employ a mobile workforce. Training programs are more critical than ever, given that you may not be able to find the skill you want in the workforce.

This is a good time to buy other businesses. If you have not positioned your business for sale, you likely do not have time to do so before the next recession. The next good selling season will be 2017 and 2018. Position now to be ready.

Do not let the pain of the past color your vision for the future. Find a sector of your business that is entrepreneurial and expand that segment.

In periods of inflation, metrics and monitoring are critical.

If you cannot raise prices, sell that business unit. Raise prices more frequently and in smaller increments. Think 1% to 1.5% per quarter instead of 4% a year.

For Individuals

The stock market will continue to be volatile thru 2011. Brian is bullish on 2012 and then expects a lackluster market. Position portfolios to take advantage of the 3 megatrends noted earlier.

Invest globally and position your portfolio to include commodities and other investments that do well in periods of rising interest rates and inflation.

Refinance your home if you have not already done so. If you are young and have equity in your home, consider borrowing the equity and investing it outside your home.

Summary

Brian closed with a quote from Dr. W Edwards Deming. “It isn’t necessary to change, survival is optional.”

That sort of says it all. If you can’t love change, at least accept it and position yourself for it. As with any of these ideas, it is best to a) run the numbers for your personal situation and b) consider the impact based on your personal goals.

As your Wealth Advocate, we are here to guide you and your business thru the coming changes. If you have questions or need our assistance, please contact me at Mackey@MackeyAdvisors.com or our team at 859-331-7755.

May prosperity be yours,

Mackey

Despite Market Swells, Advisors Maintain Allocations

By: Donna Mitchell
May 21, 2010

The financial planners at Seattle-based Moss Adams Wealth Advisors knew how to respond to the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, which included the punishing market dip on Thursday. Largely, they did nothing, and that was alright with their clients.

There was no dumping of equities across the board. They did not pull up stakes and hunker down in cash positions. “We don’t change our allocations based on the markets dropping or increasing,” said Sheryl Rowling, a San Diego-based partner at Moss Adams Wealth Advisors.

The company generally takes a passive approach to investing, and uses institutional mutual funds for their low costs to investors. The firm does believe in using talented managers when the markets are less efficient, Rowling said, but there was no overwhelming sense that clients were clamoring for change.

After the so-called flash crash on May 6, and leading up to the $1 trillion debt bailout extended to Greece, Moss Adams emailed letters to its clients assuring them that such market upheavals happen, and that they should not react by changing their positions. “Not surprisingly, we got zero phone calls and emails expressing concerns,” Rowling said. “They understand that the market will be volatile, and they understand that what they have is a long-term strategy to meet goals in the long run.”

Certainly, the markets have given advisors and clients enough to spur them to action. The MSCI EAFE Index, a benchmark used by many international mutual funds, was down 13% through Wednesday night. Negative currency exchanges made matters worse, says Alec Young, an international equity strategist at Standard & Poor’s. On Monday, the Euro was down 20.3% against the dollar, and by Wednesday had hit a four-year low below $1.22. Early Friday, the Euro had recovered briefly against the dollar.

“That is more currency risk than clients are used to taking,” Young said. S&P, which lowered its recommendation on international stocks from overweight to marketweight, now says clients should hold back on making new investment decisions. “We are not recommending initiating any new positions.”

Further upstream, executives at asset management firm PIMCO, based in Newport Beach, Calif., say independent advisors on a whole are not shifting their portfolios around dramatically. Instead, they are making changes on the margins. They are hedging for inflation by picking up Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. To ensure that clients will have money on hand for short-and longer-term needs, they are buying staggered durations of money markets, Doug Ongaro, a managing director at PIMCO, said in a phone call. Ongaro is head of its registered investment advisor channel and a member of the management team for the firm’s global wealth management group. Aside from that, advisors are mainly asking a lot of questions about what their appropriate allocations should be. “They have strategic allocations and methodologies that they stick with,” Ongaro said. “They are trying to be smart about what those allocations mean, and they are trying to be more flexible, in terms of what the markets are providing.”

But some professionals, like the ones at Rockingstone Advisors, a wealth management firm that manages separate accounts for high-net-worth clients, felt they had the answers to those questions: overhaul the portfolio. Rockingstone, based in Larchmont, N.Y., slashed its European equity positions, holding on to just one stock, the AerCap Holdings [AER] the Dutch aircraft leasing company. Emerging markets positions, which used to account for 15% of its clients’ holdings, were also dumped. But it did hold on to emerging market government bonds from markets like Chile and Vietnam. It kept long positions on large-cap technology companies like Apple [AAPL] and Intel [INTC], said Brandt Sakakeeny, the firm’s managing partner.

The market was disappointed with the $1 trillion debt bailout, and felt that Greece should have been allowed to default and leave the Euro, Sakakeeny said. But Germany’s unilateral ban on naked short selling of securities two weeks later really undermined the market’s confidence in European leadership during the crisis. In that practice, a trader sells assets he or she does not own hoping to buy them back cheaper at a later date.

“I confess, we were on the long side of this,” said Sakakeeny. “We thought the initial European response would have been sufficient, but clearly it was not.”