The Future is Your Decision

From our July 2011 Creating Confidence Newsletter.

Last Tuesday the 12^th, I spent the morning at the Vistage All City meeting. Our speaker was Brian Beaulieu, a respected economist from the Institute for Trend Research. Brian’s talk, The Future is Your Decision, offered perspectives for CEOs and individual investors based on his trend research.

I found his information useful and have summarized his thoughts below.

Overview

There are 3 mega-trends to be considered when making decisions about your businesses or when investing:

1. Demographics, the World and the US have increasing population. More people = economic growth
2. Inflation, not hyperinflation, but easily 4.5% to 6%
3. Taxes are going up

2011 and 2012 will be periods of modest growth, with continued high unemployment. At the same time, it will be increasingly difficult to fill certain knowledge based positions because our workforce is a) immobile due to being unable to sell their existing homes and b) inadequately trained for the type of jobs available.

2013 and 2014 will likely be a modest recessionary period like the early 1990’s but not as deep as 2008.

Commodity prices are on a temporary rest. 2012 will see increasing commodity prices on items such gold, copper, oil and agricultural products.

The US represents 26% of the world economy. While we are the largest economy in the world, our share of the pie is growing smaller and opportunities exist in emerging economies for investment and doing business. Think Brazil, Australia, and India.

There will be ongoing weakness of the US dollar.

Housing will no longer be in recession but will not be in recovery. Over the next 5 years people will rent and not buy.

Interest rates will remain low and may creep up in 2012 and 2013. A 2014 recession may provide a temporary restraint on rates. Currently we have the lowest rates we will see in our lifetime. Borrow long term, taking advantage of fixed rates now and repay with cheaper inflated dollars.

Remember that normal today is tomorrow’s abnormal.

For Businesses

Look for customers in these growth segments:

• Exporters
• Alternative Energy
• Health care
• Professional services such as law and accounting
• Higher education
• Overseas in India, Brazil, Canada and Australia

Inflation will hit the labor market in 2012. You will need a strategy to employ a mobile workforce. Training programs are more critical than ever, given that you may not be able to find the skill you want in the workforce.

This is a good time to buy other businesses. If you have not positioned your business for sale, you likely do not have time to do so before the next recession. The next good selling season will be 2017 and 2018. Position now to be ready.

Do not let the pain of the past color your vision for the future. Find a sector of your business that is entrepreneurial and expand that segment.

In periods of inflation, metrics and monitoring are critical.

If you cannot raise prices, sell that business unit. Raise prices more frequently and in smaller increments. Think 1% to 1.5% per quarter instead of 4% a year.

For Individuals

The stock market will continue to be volatile thru 2011. Brian is bullish on 2012 and then expects a lackluster market. Position portfolios to take advantage of the 3 megatrends noted earlier.

Invest globally and position your portfolio to include commodities and other investments that do well in periods of rising interest rates and inflation.

Refinance your home if you have not already done so. If you are young and have equity in your home, consider borrowing the equity and investing it outside your home.

Summary

Brian closed with a quote from Dr. W Edwards Deming. “It isn’t necessary to change, survival is optional.”

That sort of says it all. If you can’t love change, at least accept it and position yourself for it. As with any of these ideas, it is best to a) run the numbers for your personal situation and b) consider the impact based on your personal goals.

As your Wealth Advocate, we are here to guide you and your business thru the coming changes. If you have questions or need our assistance, please contact me at Mackey@MackeyAdvisors.com or our team at 859-331-7755.

May prosperity be yours,

Mackey

COBRA Premium Subsidy Program Extended

On December 19, 2009, President Obama signed into law the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2010 (DOD) which extends the 65% COBRA premium subsidy to February 28, 2010.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided a government subsidy of 65% of the cost of COBRA coverage for employees (and their eligible family members) who lost their health insurance coverage due to involuntary termination of employment in 2009. The subsidy was to last for up to 9 months. The DOD extends the subsidy to 15 months and includes eligible employees (and their eligible family members) who lose their jobs in January or February of 2010.

The Most Important Thing

For 2009, at the top of every CEO’s financial goals, should be one thing, survive.

Staying cash flow positive and preserving capital is the name of the 2009 game. There are brighter days ahead, and your company will benefit when they arrive. …. if you are still in the game and on the playing field.

Challenging economies make for difficult decisions. This week Mackey Advisors CPA chose to lay off a new hire to insure our survival and long term health. Last summer, we hired for growth based on our strategic plan. Today and in the near term, the economic environment is not supporting our plan. We could have stayed the course, and burned through precious capital, putting us in a weakened state for the recovery. Instead we chose to trim back to profitability. This decision offers the company the ability to maintain its strong balance sheet and allows us to continue to invest in technology and other resources to improve effectiveness and efficiency.

And while all the numbers support the decision, there is also the emotional carnage from a layoff. People are personal and it is hard to make a termination decision. This means listening and being present to the concerns and fears of the team with open and transparent communication.

The first goal of the business is to take care of the business. Some of the other moves we made (and are still making) this year to preserve cash while at the same time aligning the company for the opportunity that will come from the economic recovery are:

• cut the fat -we have carefully looked at our overhead and trimmed fat, careful not to slice into any muscle
• reduced CEO compensation
• increased our service to clients (our goal is that none of our clients go out of business!) without raising our fees by leveraging our time with web technology
• frozen pay short term
• added to our knowledge by learning more about web marketing
• monitor receivables like a hawk

The mantra for this year, yes we can. Will you join us?


May prosperity be yours,
Mackey McNeill, CPA/PFS IAR
President and CEO
Mackey Advisors
www.CultivatingProsperity.com
859-331-7755
Mackey@CultivatingProsperity.com