The Future is Your Decision

From our July 2011 Creating Confidence Newsletter.

Last Tuesday the 12^th, I spent the morning at the Vistage All City meeting. Our speaker was Brian Beaulieu, a respected economist from the Institute for Trend Research. Brian’s talk, The Future is Your Decision, offered perspectives for CEOs and individual investors based on his trend research.

I found his information useful and have summarized his thoughts below.

Overview

There are 3 mega-trends to be considered when making decisions about your businesses or when investing:

1. Demographics, the World and the US have increasing population. More people = economic growth
2. Inflation, not hyperinflation, but easily 4.5% to 6%
3. Taxes are going up

2011 and 2012 will be periods of modest growth, with continued high unemployment. At the same time, it will be increasingly difficult to fill certain knowledge based positions because our workforce is a) immobile due to being unable to sell their existing homes and b) inadequately trained for the type of jobs available.

2013 and 2014 will likely be a modest recessionary period like the early 1990’s but not as deep as 2008.

Commodity prices are on a temporary rest. 2012 will see increasing commodity prices on items such gold, copper, oil and agricultural products.

The US represents 26% of the world economy. While we are the largest economy in the world, our share of the pie is growing smaller and opportunities exist in emerging economies for investment and doing business. Think Brazil, Australia, and India.

There will be ongoing weakness of the US dollar.

Housing will no longer be in recession but will not be in recovery. Over the next 5 years people will rent and not buy.

Interest rates will remain low and may creep up in 2012 and 2013. A 2014 recession may provide a temporary restraint on rates. Currently we have the lowest rates we will see in our lifetime. Borrow long term, taking advantage of fixed rates now and repay with cheaper inflated dollars.

Remember that normal today is tomorrow’s abnormal.

For Businesses

Look for customers in these growth segments:

• Exporters
• Alternative Energy
• Health care
• Professional services such as law and accounting
• Higher education
• Overseas in India, Brazil, Canada and Australia

Inflation will hit the labor market in 2012. You will need a strategy to employ a mobile workforce. Training programs are more critical than ever, given that you may not be able to find the skill you want in the workforce.

This is a good time to buy other businesses. If you have not positioned your business for sale, you likely do not have time to do so before the next recession. The next good selling season will be 2017 and 2018. Position now to be ready.

Do not let the pain of the past color your vision for the future. Find a sector of your business that is entrepreneurial and expand that segment.

In periods of inflation, metrics and monitoring are critical.

If you cannot raise prices, sell that business unit. Raise prices more frequently and in smaller increments. Think 1% to 1.5% per quarter instead of 4% a year.

For Individuals

The stock market will continue to be volatile thru 2011. Brian is bullish on 2012 and then expects a lackluster market. Position portfolios to take advantage of the 3 megatrends noted earlier.

Invest globally and position your portfolio to include commodities and other investments that do well in periods of rising interest rates and inflation.

Refinance your home if you have not already done so. If you are young and have equity in your home, consider borrowing the equity and investing it outside your home.

Summary

Brian closed with a quote from Dr. W Edwards Deming. “It isn’t necessary to change, survival is optional.”

That sort of says it all. If you can’t love change, at least accept it and position yourself for it. As with any of these ideas, it is best to a) run the numbers for your personal situation and b) consider the impact based on your personal goals.

As your Wealth Advocate, we are here to guide you and your business thru the coming changes. If you have questions or need our assistance, please contact me at Mackey@MackeyAdvisors.com or our team at 859-331-7755.

May prosperity be yours,

Mackey

New content added to Mackey Advisors Website

Click here to read an interesting article by Jeff Plungis on credit card companies charging inactivity fees.

Click here to view the PDF of Forefield's 2010 Key Numbers for tax planning. These numbers will help you with:

• Individual tax planning
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• Retirement planning
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If you have any questions or would like more information call 859.331.7755

Buffet on the Economy

I do not pretend to be as smart as Warren Buffet. And smart people know how to wade through the vast amounts of information and find the jewels of wisdom. For this reason, I always pay attention to Warren Buffet.

Click here to read Buffet AP article

May prosperity be yours,
Mackey McNeill
President and CEO
Mackey Advisors
www.CultivatingProsperity.com
859-331-7755
Mackey@CultivatingProsperity.com

Bargain hunters beware!

With Circuit City going out of business, Macy’s closing 11 stores, and other retailers likely to do similar, going out business sales are everywhere.

If you are not careful, the financial pain of the retailer could become your pain.

Shopping isn’t a recreational activity that pays dividends. Those giant SALE signs can be a magnet for your attention.

Remember who comes first in your world – you! It is certainly in the retailer’s best interest that you buy something from them. The question is, is it in your best interest?

First, ask yourself this basic question – what do I really need?

Take a stroll thru your house and closet and ask yourself, do you really need anything? Is your house (and your rented storage facility) already packed to capacity? Think of all the things that you own that you are still paying for via your current credit card debt and ask yourself one big question. What happens to the fun of shopping when the credit card statement comes in the mail?

Develop new habits. Get a note pad and write down things that you need, as needs arises. For example, you stain your white blouse and it doesn’t come clean, so you need a new one. You notice your favorite black shoes have a hole in them, so you write, “black shoes” on the list. Once you have your list, and the money saved and in hand for your purchases, go on a buying trip. Notice I did not say shopping trip. Go in search of what you need.

Take shopping off your recreational activity list. Find a new way to fill your leisure time. Go to the park, the library, call a friend, or volunteer at the local soup kitchen. These are great ways to spend your day, and save your pocket book.

Giving to others in need adds a humbling perspective to your life. Wants and needs get real clear when you meet people who don’t know where their next meal is coming from. Try on rewards of the heart, and save your pocket book and your peace of mind along the way.

If you have the money in hand, do take the opportunity in these times to save money on things you need. Take one basic question with you on your buying trip. Do I love it? Do you beyond a shadow of a doubt, absolutely positively, love it? Not like it, do I love it? Do not buy until the object of your attention gets a resounding yes to this question. Without this criterion, your “bargain” will still be in your closet with the tags still on a year from now. Buying something you don’t need is no bargain.

To summarize:
Replace recreational shopping with a more pocket book friendly activity.
Don’t make a purchase until the money is in hand.
Keep a list of what you need, and go on a buying trip to find it.
Ask yourself, Do you really love it?
Enjoy the feeling of empowerment that comes when you pay cash!

May prosperity be yours,

Mackey McNeill, CPA/PFS IAR
President and CEO
Mackey Advisors
www.CultivatingProsperity.com
859-331-7755
Mackey@CultivatingProsperity.com